What goes up must come down

by Sherri Edwards · Published July 1, 2024 · Updated July 1, 2024

What comes up must come down.

For those of us who were in the middle of the dot com bust in the early 2000s, the job market over the past two years is no surprise. What we learned then was what goes up must come down.

Let’s take a look at the 1990s. After a slow start, the dot com surge exploded. Technology startups were popping up at an incredible rate. But few of them had business plans, established products, or a track record of profitability. The tech surge was exciting and everyone wanted to get on the bandwagon. From a career coaching perspective, it seemed people were attempting to live out their fantasies with little regard for the practicality of their pursuits.

Unrealistic job titles and compensation lead to disappointment in a tough market.

Along with the surge came unrealistic job titles and compensation. It was not uncommon to see people with fewer than five years of work experience (of any kind) named directors or vice presidents in completely unestablished environments. Compensation for many tripled. People left public sector jobs for the big bucks offered in the private sector. But alas, what goes up must come down. It wasn’t long before those people wished they could have turned back the clock.

When there are role redundancies, people lose jobs.

From 1995, NASDAQ composite stock market index rose by 800%, falling to nearly 80% from its peak by October 2002. In my mind, it wasn’t a surprise when companies failed and massive layoffs followed. People had been overpaid and many companies had little budget oversight. I was doing outplacement work at the beginning of the decade. I was stunned by the overall expectations of the groups of those newly unemployed people. Some didn’t see the layoffs coming, even though the news had presented very distinct messages that made it no surprise. The merger between US West and Quest was highly public. Clearly, when there are role redundancies, people lose jobs. I recall one person being stunned because she had had perfect attendance. So I asked her when was the last time she learned something new. She was deeply offended when I pointed out that just showing up was no longer enough. People had to bring something to the table that a competitor could not. 2002 to 2004 was an ugly time for many job seekers.

Your past job titles you pursue need to match the context of similar roles.

Another time, I recall a former HR candidate who insisted she could only pursue jobs at a very senior level. Yet, she had less than five years of experience as a generalist and none managing teams or budgets. Her former employer had given her a title that did not match the context for the role in the general market. She solely applied for high-level roles without considering the actual requirements or context.

When she finally was granted an interview and subsequently received an offer, she countered with $5k more than the top of company’s range. Of course, the company passed. When she finally requested help, I inquired about her former compensation and what she needed to cover expenses. It turns out their midpoint would have been more than enough. Her reasoning was that since she had previously held a higher title, she thought she deserved more money. I then described the expectations relevant to her former title, explained why her expectations were unrealistic, and showed her why she hadn’t received any other invitations interview. She remained unemployed for at least eight months but became an “independent consultant”. This was often code for: I’m not working, I don’t have any customers, and I’ll leave my business for the first viable job offer.

Time in the workforce does not equate to value.

For many people who had just entered the job market in the late 90s, it was a shocker to find out that the compensation they had been receiving was outside of the reality of most established businesses. Others, who had been in the workforce longer, still had a false sense of their competitive value. They equated time in the workforce with worth vs researching skills that were considered valuable. The sad thing was that they refused to believe this or accept that something needed to change to return to work. There were gazillions of people in the market with vastly more experience than those who competed for the jobs with the titles they had previously held. The notion of stepping back and accepting roles that better fit with their skills and experience was out of the question for many job seekers. Holding out for years, many went into debt and lost their homes.

Another occurrence during the early 2000s changed the landscape a bit more. Public entities lost employees to technology companies due to vast compensation disparities during the dot com surge. It took a while, but in the early 2000s, public entities finally started bringing their wages up to levels that would have competed with tech companies had it happened sooner. Instead, public wages outpaced what was happening in private industry, so people scrambled to get high-paying public jobs. Some people succeeded in completely changing direction and signed on to public jobs that offered much more stability and great benefits. I can think of many people who are still with public agencies or were able to retire from the public sector.

Temp jobs can be an opportunity to learn new skills and meet new people.

As many people were getting back on their feet, we faced the financial crisis and bank collapses of 2008. An entire industry shut down, so people scrambled to reinvent themselves. One of my clients was a bank manager. A temporary job doing Excel spreadsheets for a public entity was sent my way from a staffing company. I knew my client was an excel wiz, so I encouraged her to accept it. Temp jobs can be an opportunity to learn new skills, meet new people, and require little investment. Although never a guarantee, they can also lead to great opportunities. She took the job, and in addition to introducing her to public employment, her network expanded in a new direction. She accepted an FTE role within six months. Not much later, she was promoted and became an operations manager. She ended up staying with that organization until she officially retired.

When profits are tanking, expect a wave of layoffs.

More recently, due to COVID and the need to get work done remotely, technology companies surged again. In 2021, the market went kind of berserk. Tech jobs were hard to fill, so compensation skyrocketed. This meant people who recruited or supported those workers also received higher than realistic wages. In less than two years, when companies recognized their profits were tanking, a wave of layoffs occurred. It was predictable that if software engineers were getting laid off, the recruiters who had found them and the HR and operations staff who had supported them would also be let go. Once again, people with lofty titles, but lack any substance for similar roles in the current job market, face challenges. People with limited work experience had no other frame of reference, so their expectations now are somewhat unrealistic.

Over the years, I’ve watched people refuse to consider lower-level roles or research their current market value. Many people are unwilling to do the work involved in making a career transition. It requires researching growth opportunities vs only considering posted jobs. Then, in addition to identifying an opportunity, the corresponding story has to be believable.

Being told you’re over-qualified may feed your ego, but it does nothing for your wallet.

The strategy is to step back where you can be the TOP candidate. Your intent is to then make a leap forward as you prove yourself. (FYI: you do NOT tell the employer this. This is YOUR plan, not necessarily theirs.) The job offer will never materialize when a candidate acts like a position is beneath them. When the candidate shows enthusiasm for the company and the opportunity to learn from within, they appear to be the best-qualified candidate. Someone saying you’re over-qualified may feed your ego, but it does nothing for your wallet. Being the BEST qualified allows you the choice to get in and prove yourself. You may rise there, or it could be an opportunity to learn what you need to know to be competitive in another company a year later.

Unrealistic expectations for many have come at a high price.

In addition to titles and compensation being sticking points, people accustomed to remote work have remained steadfast in their demands to work at home. People turn down onsite or hybrid work, even when their finances are declining by the minute. I know people who (contrary to my advice six or eight months ago) refused to consider roles that paid less than what they had been earning. The same people are now singing a different tune. Unfortunately, their circumstances make them desperate. Had they hopped on board with an opportunity that could lead to growth, they might have been mildly behind with their financial plan. But running out of money without a solid path forward is a more difficult path to navigate. What goes up must come down. But once it’s down, it’s harder to build back.

Unrealistic expectations for many have come at a high price. I’ve seen people face foreclosures or displacement after remaining unemployed for eight months, a year, and even longer. My wish is that the people who spend considerable effort in adding social media posts about their bad job search experiences will spend more time evaluating what they can do to change their circumstances. And frankly, ask for help when they recognize they can’t see a path forward on their own.